Supporting care coordination and management – NHS Midlands and Lancashire CSU
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Informatics, analytics and digital tools to support care co-ordination and management, risk and impactability models

We have extensive experience of developing and deploying risk prediction, risk stratification and impactability models which have the potential to improve service planning and patient care.

Demand for healthcare services has increased substantially over recent years, as medical technologies advance and patients become better informed and more empowered. We anticipate that these trends will continue placing increasing pressure on ICS budgets.

We support ICSs to adopt a range of strategies to ensure their resources are optimally targeted to improve patient outcomes and reduce health inequalities. Our tools are effective over a range of different timeframes, depending on customer needs.

We have developed effective risk stratification methods to help predict patients with the greatest risk of high-cost adverse outcomes, and impactability models to improve understanding of which patients might respond to interventions to moderate these risks, and avoid triple fail events.

Risk prediction methods use historical data to explore the relationship between a patient’s characteristics and a specific adverse outcome. They can be used to predict the risk of certain outcomes and future healthcare costs.

No single risk prediction method is capable of addressing all STP and ICS needs. We have developed a portfolio of methods which can be deployed and configured to respond to the most frequently occurring requirements and have the skills to develop entirely bespoke models to address new requests.

To support an STP or ICS select or commission an appropriate tool, we would first engage in a detailed dialogue to understand how the customer intends to deploy the tool and what decisions and practices it hopes to influence.

Risk prediction tools represent significant investments, not only in technical infrastructure, software and intellectual property, but also in training staff to use the tool. Meanwhile, a strong appetite to introduce risk stratification is not always underpinned by a clear rationale or business case.

We would encourage a robust conversation to explore the incremental cost and benefits of any planned investment and a rigorous study of the alternatives including more traditional approaches to case finding. Logic models can be used to understand how risk prediction forms part of a wider strategy and can usefully highlight the critical dependencies.

We are highly skilled and experienced in the design and delivery of evaluations, using sophisticated approaches capable of evaluating and measuring the impact of risk stratification tools to mitigate against the risks of worsening health inequalities and increasing costs. We are fully committed to impact evaluations and to ensuring that new approaches have been tried and tested before being rolled out more widely.

By closely collaborating with our customers, and with access to high level evaluation methodologies through our Strategy Unit, we can ensure that appropriate and proportionate evaluation techniques are applied to support decision-making.

Get in touch

Kingston House

438-450 High Street
West Bromwich
West Midlands
B70 9LD

0300 404 2999
  • Heron House
  • Anglesey House

Midlands and Lancashire CSU
120 Grove Road
Stoke on Trent

0300 404 2999

Midlands and Lancashire CSU
Towers Business Park
WS15 1UL

0300 404 2999
Jubilee House

Midlands and Lancashire CSU
Lancashire Business Park
PR26 6TR

01772 214200
Bevan House

3rd Floor
Stephenson Way
Wavertree Technology Park
L13 1HN

0151 295 8612/8619
  • 1829 Building, Chester
  • Old Market House
  • Clark House

1829 Building
Countess of Chester Health Park
Liverpool Road

01244 650 351

Hamilton Street
CH41 5AL

0151 514 2335 EXT 1487

Hulley Road
SK10 2LU

01606 544 791
Cardinal Square

3rd Floor North Point,
10 Nottingham Road,
Derby DE1 3QT
East Midlands

01332 868700
St Johns House

St Johns House
30 East Street
United Kingdom

0121 611 0100



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